Protesters hold signs reading "IBK get out" during a demonstration called by the president of the High Islamic Council of Mali (HCIM) to protest against the government and the massacre of civilians. (AFP / MICHELE CATTANI)
Sahel Research Group Report
July 12, 2022
Contributors: Hélène Marecal
Executive Summary
Interim Malian President Assimi Goïta announces two-year delay to transition to civilian rule
Malian government announces that it is considering a new constitution
International financial sanctions continue to paralyze the Malian economy, fueling domestic political opposition against the ruling regime
Conflict between violent extremist organizations, armed rebel groups, and government forces increasing in central and northern Mali
French reports of Wagner Group mercenaries on strike due to non-payment of salaries in Mali
Tensions against Prime Minister Choguel Maïga
Updates to Malian electoral law could lead to the candidacy of Assimi Goïta in the 2024 Malian Presidential election. The official decree was published in the official journal. The president of the transition validates the text adopted by the national council of the transition. This law was first carried by Prime Minister Choguel Maïga, but it has become a weapon against his own politics.
Growing tensions between Malian PM Choguel Maïga and the Malian parliament due to recent electoral politics could lead to his eventual resignation or removal from office.
Moreover, several voices have asserted their opposition to the Malian junta, such as Imam Mahmoud Dicko and part of the the gathering of patriotic forces, which has called for the resignation of Prime Minister Choguel Maïga. Indeed, the financial embargo of ECOWAS is suffocating the Malian economy. The National Union of Workers of Mali has also begun to criticize the government. Moreover, some officers have claimed to be opposed and most have been charged with attempted destabilization.
Appointed in June 2021, Mali's Prime Minister, Choguel Maïga, is increasingly being challenged. Photo by Reuters, Amadou Keita.
Mali caught in spiral of violence
In the tri-border area of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, the Imghad Tuareg Self-Defense Group and Allies (Gatia) and the Movement for the Salvation of Azawad (MSA) have taken over the fight against jihadists from the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel region following the gradual departure of Task Force Barkhane and Takuba forces. In the last three months, the Islamic State has taken more than two-thirds of the Menaka region, and the Gatia and MSA have launched a counteroffensive in which the Malian military forces (FAMA) have unofficially taken part. The MSA and Gatia have had to withdraw to Menaka after suffering heavy losses. Four wounded were evacuated to Gao by a UN helicopter. Barkhane did not intervene and was not called in without external support, the Gatia and MSA were unable to contain the EIGS.
On June 19, 2022 terrorists killed approximately twenty civilians in northern Mali. The resurgence of terrorist attacks by the Islamic State in the Great Sahara (IS-GS) was condemned by Antonio Guterres. The main consequence of these attacks is the massive displacement of civilians fleeing the violence.
A large part of Gao and Menaka is now occupied by jihadist groups and for the first time, a Russian mercenary has been killed in Mali during a previously undisclosed operation.
A Guinean peacekeeper was also killed in a mine explosion in Kidal. This new death comes in a context of tense negotiations for the renewal of the mandate of the MINUSMA as part of its peacekeeping action. Since 2013, 175 peacekeepers have been killed.
Wagner Group mercenaries on strike?
According to French sources, several mercenaries from the Wagner group in Timbuktu and Sevare are refusing to leave the camp and patrol alongside the Malian army. They are protesting the non-payment of their salaries since April. Because of ECOWAS financial sanctions, Mali is experiencing enormous financial difficulties. That is why, for several weeks, the Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) affiliated group Katibat Sèrma have been encircling the town of Boni without any intervention from Wagner Group or the FAMA forces. In central Mali, the Katibat Sèrma, members of the JNIM, terrorize the population, which flees the region en masse. Wagner and the Malian army are reportedly still in place.
Reported massacres in Dianwelly and Diallassagou
Between June 18-19, 2022 there was a reported massacre of more than 130 civilians in the towns of Dianwelly and Diallassagou by the Macina Katiba. Reports indicated that the jihadists arrived on their motorcycles, claiming that "you are not Muslims" and systematically killed people. They took prisoners hostage, burned houses, and looted livestock and granaries.
The delayed FAMA military response to the massacres led to public demonstrations in the central Malian town of Bankass. Protestors demanded that the Malian government and security forces do more to stop the spiral of violence. In response, Malian PM Assimi Goïta declared three days of national mourning.
During the month of June, the Malian army announced that it had killed several jihadists in this area. According to analyst Baba Dakono, this attack demonstrates a new turn in the actions of the Macina Katiba, which runs counter to their modus operandi, as they are more accustomed to seeking to rally the population. Moreover, these massacres contradict the triumphant communication of the junta, which claims to have resumed the offensive against the terrorists. This could lead the public to question the effectiveness of the Malian government, which is attempting to dialogue with the GSIM but which refuses to do so. On June 23, the FAMAS forces claimed to have carried out an air strike against Katiba Macina jihadists.
References:
LeMonde.fr - Au Mali, les critiques montent contre la junte et sa "transition indéfinie"
LePoint.fr - Mali : la junte fixe à 2 ans le délai avant un retour des civils au pouvoir
Le Point Afrique - 7 juin
Jeune Afrique - Mali : la loi électorale va-t-elle faire chuter Choguel Maïga ?
Fatoumata Diallo - 22 juin
Liberation.fr - A la frontière Mali-Niger, l’Etat islamique repousse une alliance de milices loyalistes
Célian Macé - 9 juin
Jeune Afrique - Mali : quand les mercenaires de Wagner se mettent en grève
Benjamin Roger - 17 juin
LeFigaro.fr - Au Mali, un nouveau massacre soulève la colère
Tanguy Berthemet – 22 juin
Sud Ouest.fr - Le nord du Mali s'enfonce dans la violence : au moins 20 civils et un Casque bleu tués Avec AFP - 20 juin
About the Author
The Sahel Research Group formally initiates its research efforts with a contribution from ACSIA research associate, Hélène Marecal, a first-year graduate student at Sciences Po Grenoble. Her research interests in the Sahel region are focused on violent extremist organizations, French foreign policy, and Great power competition.