Future Diplomacy
July 11, 2022
Contributors: Andy Laub and Dr. Colette Mazzucelli
French President Emmanuel Macron, candidate for re-election in the 2022 French presidential election, speaks during a campaign rally, in Marseille, France on April 16, 2022. Credit: Reuters/Christian Hartmann.
President Macron's Decisive Re-election Victory
French President Emmanuel Macron’s decisive re-election victory on April 24 was met with sighs of relief across European capitals. The future of the European project has been very much in question amidst the nationalist backlash against globalization, which saw the second-largest member, the United Kingdom, withdraw from the European Union (EU) in 2016. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz went so far as to call Macron’s victory “a vote of confidence in Europe.” President Macron is a strong believer in the European Union. Consider how seriously he has taken France’s rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union during January-June 2022 and how inherently he views European and French identity as intertwined.
Macron once again defeated Far-Right candidate Marine Le Pen, a known Eurosceptic, who in her last campaign in 2017 promised to hold a “Frexit” referendum to withdraw France from the European Union. This promise was noticeably absent from Le Pen’s campaign platform in the 2022 election, as the United Kingdom across the Channel struggles with even higher inflation and COVID-19 pandemic rates. Le Pen, who is known to have a close personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and received campaign loans from a Russian bank, was also noticeably hostile towards NATO and promised to pull France out of its integrated military command (IMC) structure.
Europe’s collective security remains strong and yet dependent on France as the main security guarantor in the bloc.
The Far Right platform was soundly rejected in the run-up to the election. Europe’s collective security remains strong and yet dependent on France as the main security guarantor in the bloc. As observers view one extreme on the Right led by Marine Le Pen, there is another extreme emerging on the Left, led by Jean Luc Melenchon. Melenchon did quite well in the first round of the presidential election coming in a close third with about 20% of the vote. He is particularly popular among disaffected youth disappointed in Macron’s lack of action on issues such as climate change. The Center-Left Socialist Party led by Paris Mayor Ann Hidalgo did not even reach 2% of the vote in the first round. The Left agreed to come together under a coalition known as Nupes for the legislative elections. Along with the Green, Socialist, and Communist parties, the plan was to back Melenchon for prime minister, had they won the majority.
Like Le Pen, Melenchon is an anti-NATO Eurosceptic who could pose a major problem for President Macron’s agenda. While Macron’s centrist bloc known as Ensemble came out on top in France’s legislative election, it will retain about 245 seats. This number falls short of the 289 seats needed for an outright majority. The results are not totally surprising given Macron’s mixed popularity, as leaders around the world face unprecedented challenges from COVID-19, high inflation, and the crisis in Ukraine. What is more surprising, however, is that Le Pen’s Far Right party won 89 seats, far outpacing expectations, whereas the Center-Right, Les Républicains, which is the party of De Gaulle and Chirac, garnered only 61 seats.
The Future of European Integration?
With the future composition of the French government hanging in the balance, Macron has another five years in the Élysée as the Russian aggression in Ukraine is likely to be protracted in nature. Macron’s presidency and the future of European integration hold major ramifications for France as well as the Continent. Macron’s own re-election showed Europe was strong enough to endure the first big test. The question remains open: can Europe’s integration continue to withstand the challenges to come, especially in light of the Ukrainian refugee crisis? This question is key since the Russian aggression in Ukraine occurs amidst a global economic downturn, as the latest surge in the pandemic continues.
The question remains open: can Europe’s integration continue to withstand the challenges to come, especially in light of the Ukrainian refugee crisis?
During the 2017 election, Macron positioned himself as a transformational political leader - at once a centrist and a radical. Looking beyond 2020 to his second term as president, observers may ask if Macron can bring about a new institutional order within the confines of the Fifth Republic as defined by DeGaulle and Debré in the Constitution of 1958. Of critical importance to the French political landscape is how Macron defines the political Center in contradistinction to the Far Right and the Far Left - positions increasingly defined by parties that represent an older cleavage in French politics rather than the newer movement Macron aims to entrench in the 21st-century scene.
Vladimir Putin held talks with President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron at the Kremlin on February 7, 2022.
Macron, Le Pen, and Melenchon exert influence as political leaders in the context of the institutional culture of the Fifth Republic, which privileges the role of a president who can remain distant from the populace. The consistent presidential focus is on “high politics,” which, in Macron’s case, means futile diplomacy with Putin’s Russia. This focus diverts the French leader’s attention away from high immigration, rising unemployment, and economic hardship, as globalization becomes more synonymous with rising inflation and gas prices.
The consistent presidential focus is on “high politics,” which, in Macron’s case, means futile diplomacy with Putin’s Russia.
Macron is not listening to those voices that have found a champion in Le Pen. The results of the legislative elections on June 12 and 19 indicated a popular apathy with only 46% of registered voters casting a ballot in the second round. This apathy, which is coupled with a loss of support for Macron and the collapse of the “republican front” that mainstream parties and voters traditionally erected against the Far Right, signaled the first time in 20 years that a newly-elected (or re-elected) president failed to win an absolute majority in the French Parliament.
Macron as Transformational Leader
In Gaullist fashion, Macron has positioned himself as a transformational leader, for France, and in Europe, as a mediator in the midst of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. In this respect, the French president draws criticism from allies in Washington, Warsaw, and Kyiv for continuing to try to engage diplomatically with President Vladimir Putin. Macron’s statements that the West should not be trying to “humiliate” Russia have also been criticized on both sides of the Atlantic. Thus far, Macron’s diplomatic overtures have been unsuccessful. France continues to participate in sanctioning Russian officials and entities in response to the aggression. Clearly, with Finland and Sweden aspiring to NATO accession, France’s role, in tandem with its partner across the Rhine, in shaping a contemporary European security architecture that reflects the geo-economic shifts during the early twenty-first century is more critical than ever. In this context, the political transformation of Europe is only just beginning.
About the Authors
Andy Laub is PhD student in International Relations and Diplomacy at the American Graduate School in Paris and Senior Fellow for Diplomacy with the American Center for Strategic and International Affairs, he also holds an MS in International Relations from NYU’s Center for Global Affairs.
Professor Colette Mazzucelli, MALD, EdM, PhD, has taught on the graduate faculty across Schools at NYU New York since 2005, served as the First President (Academia), 2020-2022, Global Listening Centre, and is the Founder and Principal of LEAD IMPACT Reconciliation Institute.